I reckon winners: specialities with procedures, protected from general on call duties, will be popular, resilient, expanding. Plus if the NHS goes American style then procedure people win the big bucks. So radiology, with IR, and cardio and gastro will continue to do well. It feels anaesthetics ITU will continue to do well, despite no massive new developments I know of, they're still popular, protected specialities.
Losers: anything generalist. I don't believe the college's desire to have more generalists will make it popular. It's still hard work, exposed to a huge load of undifferentiated patients, high litigation risk trying find the needle in the haystack, thankless task. So I reckon ED, acute Medicine, primary care, and general paeds are not going to see exciting changes to improve care, and continue to be understaffed and have a weak voice relative to the patient load.
Oh yeah, I guess some more surgeons might be out of a job, but I guess all the cuts to cardio thoracic have happened and it's stabilised now. More PAs in anaesthetics might also affect docs there more than I predict…?
Too cynical? Too based on the 2010s, it may all change? In your country might be different as well.
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