A certain orange person and white haired public health dropout (see HIV outbreak in his state) most likely have SARS-CoV-2 and by the weekend will have Covid-19.
Let's look at the facts – this virus is HIGHLY contagious, droplet if you're coughing, but the delivery and deposition to mucous membranes is I think the primary problem for asymptomatic viral shedders, along with shared air space in enclosed rooms (see the
taxi driver etc. that became sick after driving people who were wearing masks!).
The orange one is notorious for his strong handshakes. Strong handshakes have been shown to lead to the highest level of contamination out of several human greetings (fist bump, high five, prolonged high five, brief handshake, and firm handshake).
He definitely looks more orange, and has a huskier voice, similar to a post nasal drip. I'm sure if he had a cough they'd medicate him so as not to cause panic.
In the data we have from china, I estimate that by monday he will be admitted to walter reed hospital with covid-19. His estimated chance for severe illness is ~72% table 1, note the percentage of cases over 65 are of total cases, so divide severe number by nonsevere number to see chance of severe illness. Theres a 26% chance he has admission to an ICU, the use of mechanical ventilation, or death (primary composite endpoint for NEJM article).
White haired public health dropout? probably a better chance, he seems healthy. But unless this is only spread by
women – he's been exposed. His chances of severe illness are around 27% (see above), and a 7% probability of admission to an ICU, the use of mechanical ventilation, or death.
Mortality for all critical patients was 49%.
Sadly the CDC and public health heroes standing next to them are probably at risk as well (anyone else notice the mic adjustment?). Hopefully they're vigilant (I'm sure they are).
I was asking some of my colleagues who the secretary of state is currently, and no one knows – with the rapidity of personnel turnover it's hard to keep track.
Edit: next in line is NANCY PELOSI!!!!! I’m so happy right now!
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