Megathread: 2019-nCoV (Wuhan Coronavirus)
This is a megathread to consolidate all of the ongoing posts about the 2019 novel coronavirus. We've had a bit of a deluge in the last 48 hours of posts on this topic on meddit, so we're going to try to make the available information a bit easier to navigate. This thread is a place to post updates, share information, and to ask questions; we will be slightly more relaxed with rule #3 in this megathread. However, reputable sources are still requested to support any new claims about the outbreak. Major publications or developments may be submitted as separate posts to the main subreddit but our preference would be to keep everything accessible here.
On December 31, 2019, Chinese authorities reported a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, most of which included patients who reported exposure to a large seafood market selling many species of live animals. Emergence of another pathogenic zoonotic HCoV was suspected, and by January 10, 2020, researchers from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health and their collaborators released a full genomic sequence of 2019-nCoV to public databases, exemplifying prompt data sharing in outbreak response.
Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have long been considered inconsequential pathogens, causing the “common cold” in otherwise healthy people. However, in the 21st century, 2 highly pathogenic HCoVs—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)—emerged from animal reservoirs to cause global epidemics with alarming morbidity and mortality. In December 2019, yet another pathogenic HCoV, 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), was recognized in Wuhan, China, and has caused serious illness and death. The ultimate scope and effect of this outbreak is unclear at present as the situation is rapidly evolving. (JAMA)
Since then, the outbreak has become international, prompting significant travel restrictions in affected areas of China which coincided with the Lunar New Year, a major holiday that typically features large family gatherings and travel. The virus' reproductive properties may mean that victims are unaware of their infectivity for some time. Businesses and tourist attractions in affected areas have been closed, and celebrations and events have been cancelled. The US government is reportedly organising (WSJ) a charter plane to evacuate its diplomats and citizens from the area.
Although there was international praise for the initial response to the outbreak and the speed of the genome sequencing, there are concerns currently about the validity of the number of reported cases and the methods used to attribute 2019-nCoV as a patient's cause of death.
Much more background is available from most reputable news sources, though JHU's CSSE has a good summary here that links out to other sources.
Lancaster's latest modeling: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
The Lancet's latest information: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
The Lancet's summary of the virus' clinical features – free fulltext: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
JAMA Comparison to MERS/SARS: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2759815?guestAccessKey=cdefc86b-c250-4165-8d61-22493d55a381&utm_source=fbpage&utm_medium=social_jama&utm_term=3058840713&utm_campaign=article_alert&linkId=81138221
Live tracking of confirmed cases from JHU CSSE: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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If you feel there's a resource or development that should be added to the megathread, please post it here and tag me (/u/Chayoss) or PM me if you separately. I may be at work, or asleep, or otherwise occupied but I'll try to get to it ASAP. Thanks!
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