This is some of the modelling data that the UK Government is using to plan its response to the pandemic. It also models the US as well (Appendix 1)
This paper outlines the effect of different strategies, namely, viral suppression or mitigation for the goal of advising public health authorities.
Suppression is a combination of (at this stage) non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. isolating elderly, closing schools) such that the effective reproductive number of the virus drops below 1. This involves rapidly enacted, comprehensive measures.
Mitigation is a combination of (at this stage) non-pharmaceutical interventions such the the effective reproductive number is reduced – delaying and flattening an expected peak – but not to the point that the effective reproductive number drops below 1. That is to say, the disease spreads until it can no longer maintain itself, albeit at a slower rate than an uncontrolled outbreak.
Mitigation was (likely) to have been the plan in the UK and US, until it was revealed that under the best case mitigation scenario that peak ICU demand would be 8x the ICU surge capacity. An estimated 250,000 people in the UK would die. In the US, if mitigation was followed, approximately 1.1-1.2 million deaths would occur.
The US and UK have since changed tactics and now are aiming for viral suppression. The author of this report, Professor Neil Ferguson, says that by doing so in the UK "a few thousands or tens of thousands" will die. However, measures will need to be in place until a vaccine is found. https://www.ft.com/content/249daf9a-67c3-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
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